双语•智库 | “修昔底德陷阱”是啥？中美不会陷入其中的十大理由（附译词）

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本期为第六期，智库文章综编自美国Modern War Institute智库、新华网、维基百科，文章内容有删减。

Thucydides was an Athenian historian and general. His History of the Peloponnesian War recounts the 5th-century BC war between Sparta and Athens until the year 411 BC.

修昔底德是雅典历史学家、将军。他所著的《伯罗奔尼撒战争史》讲述了公元前5世纪斯巴达与雅典之间的战争，战事一直持续到公元前411年。

He has been called the father of the school of political realism, which views the political behavior of individuals and the subsequent outcomes of relations between states as ultimately mediated by and constructed upon the emotions of fear and self-interest.

他被称为政治现实主义学派之父，该学派认为个体的政治行为和国家关系引发的后续结果是由恐惧和私利情绪产生并最终发展而来的。

More generally, Thucydides developed an understanding of human nature to explain behavior in such crises as plagues, massacres, and civil war.

从广义上来说，修昔底德开启了对人性的解读，从而解释瘟疫、大屠杀、内战等危机情形下的人类行为。

▲创造“修昔底德陷阱”一词的格雷厄姆•艾力森

Graham Tillett Allison, an American political scientist and professor at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, coined the phrase “Thucydides Trap”, otherwise known as the security dilemma, to refer to when a rising power causes fear in an established power which escalates toward war. The past 500 years have seen 16 cases in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling one. Twelve of these ended in war.

哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院的美国政治学家、教授格雷厄姆•迪利特•艾力森创造了“修昔底德陷阱”一词，也就是我们所说的安全困境，是指当一个崛起的大国引起了现存大国的恐惧，就会升级为战争。在过去的500年间，有16次出现一个新崛起的大国对现存大国造成威胁的情况，其中有12次都引发了战争。

The security dilemma has long been debated among international relations theorists. As a theory, its development was influenced by the experience of Athens and Sparta—Thucydides wrote of the Peloponnesian War that “it was the rise of Athens and the fear this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable”—and arms racing during the Cold War. The security dilemma suggests that increases in one state’s security—even a defensively motivated power—may decrease the security of another power. (Or, as Charles Glaser put it, moves to reassure one power make the other less secure.) States are fundamentally uncertain over one another’s present and future intentions. However, the theory continues, this does not mean states are doomed to fight. The offense-defense balance of military technology allows states to break out of the security dilemma. This depends upon the relative advantages of offense versus defense, and the degree to which offense and defense can be differentiated from one another.

国际关系理论界长期以来一直在讨论安全困境。作为一种理论，它的发展受到雅典和斯巴达的经验的影响——修昔底德在写到伯罗奔尼撒战争时提到：“雅典的崛起以及这种崛起在斯巴达引起的恐惧，使两国间战争不可避免”；同时，这一理论也受到冷战期间的军备竞赛的影响。安全困境表明，一国安全力量的增加（甚至是防御力量的增加），可能会降低另一国的安全力量。（或者，正如 Charles Glaser 所说的那样，一国采取安全措施会使另一国更加不安全。）各国对彼此目前和未来的意图根本无法确定。然而，这个理论仍在发展，这并不意味着国家之间注定要战斗。军事技术的攻防平衡能够让各国摆脱安全困境。这取决于进攻与防守的相对优势，以及进攻与防守可以相互区分的程度。

The world today is very different from the time of ancient Greece and mankind has more wisdom to avoid history repeating itself.

当今世界与古希腊时期有很大不同，人类在避免重蹈覆辙上更有智慧。

As a Chinese saying goes, to achieve success, one has to obtain "opportunities of time vouchsafed by Heaven, advantages of situation afforded by the Earth and the union arising from the accord of people," or to put differently, right time, right place and right person.

正如中国的一句古语所说，要想成功，必须要取得“天时、地利、人和”。

If these three conditions are ripe, China and the United States face an unprecedented opportunity to break the trap and create a win-win situation for both countries and the world as a whole.

如果这三个条件都能具备，中美就会面临着前所未有的机遇来打破这个陷阱，为两国以及整个世界创造双赢局面。

We have reasons to believe that the three conditions are ripe.

我们有理由相信这三个条件都能具备。

Reason 1: Century of peace

理由1：和平世纪

This is a world where peace, development, cooperation and mutual benefit have become the trend of the times. The Cold War mentality and zero-sum game theory should be abandoned.

21世纪的世界，和平、发展、合作、共赢已成为时代潮流。冷战思维、零和博弈的老框框必须摒弃。

Despite continuous regional conflicts, there is no sign of another world war breaking out. More and more countries choose to sit and negotiate in solving their disputes. Those who don't follow the peaceful trend will ultimately fail.

尽管天下仍不太平，小规模的地区性冲突乃至局部战争时起时伏，但世界范围的大战始终没有打起来，越来越多的国家选择坐下来谈判磋商，以解决纠纷。世界图景中，和平因素的增长超过了战争因素的增长。逆时代潮流而动者，终将失败。

With globalization deepening, one country's loss will definitely not just be its own. "No conflict, no confrontation" will serve as the bottom line for the relationship between the world's two largest economies in the new era.

人类生活在同一个地球村里，一荣俱荣，一损俱损。作为当今世界第一和第二大经济体，两国关系关乎世界命运。“不冲突、不对抗”将是中美关系的底线。

Reason 2: Historical lessons

理由2：历史教训

It is important to remember the pledge of the United Nations "to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war, which twice in our lifetime has brought untold sorrow to mankind."

《联合国宪章》序言中的宣誓值得永远铭记：“我联合国人民同兹决心：欲免后世再遭今代人类两度身历惨不堪言之战祸……”

Hatred and war can only bring disaster and distress, especially when both China and the United States have nuclear weapons. If war erupts, China's development would surely suffer a severe blow, but the U.S. leading role in the world would also be weakened.

历史足以告诫人类：偏见和歧视、仇恨和战争，只会带来灾难和痛苦。历史错误容不得再犯。尤其是核武器出现后，大战一旦爆发，整个人类将面临灭顶之灾。

As allies during WWII, the two countries shoulder more responsibility to safeguard peace and prevent tragedy repeating itself.

中美是二战盟国，共同捍卫了世界和平正义，如今更有责任捍卫和平发展的人间正道，防止历史悲剧再现。

Reason 3: China road

理由3：中国道路

"It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this inspired in Sparta that made war inevitable," as Thucydides wrote. China is not Athens and the United States is not Sparta.

“雅典的崛起以及这种崛起在斯巴达引起的恐惧，使两国间战争不可避免。”修昔底德写道。中国不是雅典，美国也不是斯巴达。

It is true that China is rising, but it is a peaceful rise. China just wants to bid farewell to its humiliating modern history and realize its dream of national rejuvenation through reform and opening up.

的确，中国正在崛起，但这种崛起是和平的崛起。中国只是想告别屈辱的近代历史，通过改革开放实现民族复兴的中国梦。

China sees itself as a member of the global community of common destiny. It does not seek alliances or expansion. There is no cause for fear as China has neither the interest, nor the need, to challenge the United States for leadership by launching a war.

中国视自身为国际社会命运共同体的一员，不会寻求联盟或者扩张。中国既没有兴趣也没有必要通过发动战争来挑战美国的领导地位，所以无需恐惧。

Reason 4: Wide Pacific

理由4：宽阔的太平洋

Both China and the United States are important members of the Asia-Pacific region which boasts the world's fastest economic growth and the greatest potential for development. It is also a region of converging interests for both countries.

中美在太平洋两岸隔洋相望，都是亚太重要国家。一方面，当今亚太是全球经济发展速度最快、潜力最大、合作最活跃的地区，也是中美利益交织最密集、互动最频繁的地区。两国在亚太的共同利益和合作动力正在增加。

China and the U.S. shoulder the common responsibility to maintain peace, stability and prosperity of the Asia Pacific, which is also the wish of regional members.

促进亚太和平稳定繁荣，是中美两国的重要使命，也是地区国家的共同愿望。

Reason 5: Economic interdependence

理由5：经济相依

Economic interdependence alone does not guarantee peace, but it is indeed a strong force to prevent war. It is in America's interest for China to be successful, peaceful and prosperous and vice versa.

经济上相互依赖并不能保证避免冲突，但确实是阻止冲突的重要力量。中国经济繁荣符合美国利益，反之亦然。

It is the first time in history that an existing power and a rising power have so many shared interests. Standing on the same ground, even if the two countries have 100 reasons to diverge, they have 1,000 reasons to cooperate.

一个当前大国与一个崛起中大国有着如此之多的共同利益，这在历史上尚属首次。从共同立场出发，中美纵有100个理由产生矛盾，也会有1000个理由保持合作。

Reason 6: Arena for global governance

理由6：全球治理

China is now a major player and supporter of the current international system, in which it is a full member. The more developed China becomes, the more it needs a peaceful and stable international environment. So does the United States.

中国都是当今国际体系重要参与者和支持者。中国的发展需要和平稳定的国际环境，美国亦是如此。

These pragmatic steps demonstrate the two sides do in fact share interests and can successfully work together.

中美之间这些务实举措说明双方利益共存，可以成功开展合作。

Reason 7: Leaders' interaction

理由7：元首互动

The interaction between Chinese and US leaders could ensure that both sides understand each other's strategic intention and avoid making mistakes on fundamental questions.

中美两国元首的互动确保双方能正确判断彼此战略意图，不在根本问题上犯错。

Reason 8: Public foundation

理由8：民意基础

Forty-six years ago, the visit of the U.S. table tennis team to China opened a new chapter in China-U.S. relations. Now there is a flight between the two countries every 17 minutes. The number of students studying in each other's country has exceeded 500,000.

46年前，来华访问的美国乒乓球队开启了中美民众友好往来的新篇章。目前两国之间每17分钟就有一个航班起降，两国在对方国家的留学生总数已逾50万。

All these lay a good public opinion foundation for further cooperation.

这些都为深化中美合作奠定深厚的民意基础。

Reason 9: Difference management

理由9：分歧管控

A different history, culture, social system and development stage make it just natural for China and the United States to have divergences, but it is not the mainstream of their ties. Even if there are issues they cannot resolve, they can manage them.

由于两国历史文化背景不同，社会制度、发展阶段各异，两国出现分歧也是自然的。但分歧不是两国关系的主流，即使无法解决，双方也能加以管控。

Over 90 intergovernmental dialogue and cooperation mechanisms have been set up so that where there are unhelpful comments or examples of narrow-minded strategic thinking, they cannot prevent the two countries from cooperation.

中美双方已建立起90多个政府间对话与合作机制，保证双方合作不会受到不利言论或战略疑虑的影响。

The two sides will continue to maintain strategic communication in the areas of the military, open seas, outer space, and cyber domains to increase trust.

双方将继续在军事、公海、外太空、网络等领域保持战略沟通，以增进互信。

Reason 10: Mutual respect

理由10：相互尊重

American leaders have emphasized many times that they welcome a strong, prosperous and stable China. Now it is time for the U.S. side to match this important statement with concrete actions.

美国领导人多次强调，欢迎一个强大、繁荣、稳定的中国。现在是把这一重要表态变为实际行动的时候了。

"The world makes way for the man who knows where he is going," as American philosopher Ralph Waldo Emerson said. Now the three conditions (time, place and person) are ripe, it is time for China and the United States to stand on the same side to escape the historical fatalism of confrontation between big powers. If Thucydides trap is replaced with a new model of major-country relationship, China and the United States will have made a great contribution to the world's future and mankind's wisdom.

正如美国哲学家拉尔夫·瓦尔多·爱默生说：“人但有追求，世界亦会让路。”中美再次来到了关键的历史当口，没有理由不抓住天时、地利、人和三重有利因素，携手打破历史怪圈。用新型大国关系终结“修昔底德陷阱”，将是中美携手献给世界未来和人类智慧的最好礼物。

相关译词： 

political realism  政治现实主义

Thucydides Trap  修昔底德陷阱

security dilemma  安全困境

arms racing  防御力量

win-win situation  双赢局面

mutual benefit  共赢

zero-sum game  零和博弈，零和游戏

national rejuvenation  民族复兴

community of common destiny  命运共同体

economic interdependence  经济相依

shared interests  共同利益

global governance  全球治理

strategic intention  战略意图

public foundation  民意基础

makes way for  让路，为…开路

historical fatalism  历史宿命论

new model of major-country relationship  新型大国关系

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